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Jimmy Williams
With fewer than ten weeks to go until Election Day, national and battleground state polls are painting a picture of a close and fluid race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
The latest surveys show Harris with narrow leads both nationally and in key battlegrounds, a marked shift from earlier polling that gave Trump a slight edge. However, the margins remain slim, and given recent polling inaccuracies, no candidate can claim clear dominance.
Since President Joe Biden’s exit from the 2024 race and independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Trump, Harris has gained ground. Nationally, polls suggest Harris holds a razor-thin lead. For example, the latest Wall Street Journal poll shows Harris with 48% of the vote to Trump’s 47%, well within the margin of error. This marks a shift from the previous Wall Street Journal poll, which had Trump leading 49% to 47%.
A Quinnipiac University poll also reflects a similar tight contest, showing Harris with 49% of the vote and Trump with 48%. This poll focused on likely voters, a key demographic heading into the general election. While there is no previous comparison from Quinnipiac regarding likely voters, the trend shows improvement for Harris. Prior polls of registered voters showed Trump with a slight edge over both Biden and Harris earlier this summer.
USA Today/Suffolk polling also indicates Harris’ lead remains narrow. In a multicandidate field, Harris leads Trump by 5 points, though the margin of error still places the race in a statistical dead heat.
In battleground states, the competition remains equally fierce. Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polls reveal that Harris and Trump are tied in Arizona and North Carolina, while Harris holds narrow leads in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Harris leads outside the margin of error, indicating strength in this crucial state.
However, the battleground picture is complex and varied. An EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan shows Trump with a 1-point advantage over Harris among likely voters, 47% to 46%. Despite this, the polling represents a positive trend for Harris, as Trump’s lead in Michigan was 4 points over Biden earlier in June.
One notable shift has occurred in the Sun Belt. States like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, once seen as challenging for Biden, now seem more attainable with Harris leading the Democratic ticket. Her momentum in these states has created opportunities that previously seemed out of reach for Democrats.
Still, the timing of these polls raises questions about whether Harris’ surge is sustainable. Much of this polling took place during what some describe as a “political honeymoon” for Harris, following the Democratic convention and Biden’s exit. It remains to be seen whether Harris can maintain her momentum as the election nears, or if her support will wane as the campaign enters its final stretch.
Trump’s polling numbers have remained remarkably consistent. Across multiple national and battleground state polls, he hovers at around 47%, a figure familiar from his previous campaigns. Trump received 47% of the popular vote in the 2020 election, which he lost, and 46% in the 2016 election, which he won.
One factor that could impact the race is the shrinking third-party vote. In 2016, third-party candidates received 6% of the vote, a significant factor in Trump’s victory. In 2020, that number dropped to 2%. Recent polls, with Kennedy out of the race, show third-party candidates receiving between 2% and 4% of the vote, suggesting a tighter contest between the two major candidates.
As the race enters its final stages, Harris holds a slight edge, but the outcome remains far from certain. With polling errors from 2016 and 2020 fresh in the minds of political observers, no lead in the current data guarantees victory.
