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President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed in recent weeks that gasoline prices in “many states” have fallen to $1.98 per gallon, despite all available public data showing the national and state averages remain far higher.
According to experts and new reporting, Trump appears to be referencing RBOB, a type of unfinished wholesale gasoline traded on commodity markets, not the final price consumers pay at the pump.
“Prices are down at tremendous numbers for gasoline,” Trump said in a May 4 interview on Meet the Press. “I have it down to $1.98 in many states right now.” Yet no state currently reports an average gas price below $2.60, according to AAA.
A May 5 report by CNBC revealed that Trump administration officials pointed to the trading price of RBOB gasoline futures to justify his claim. In mid-April, RBOB contracts briefly dipped below $2 per gallon — ranging from $1.96 to $1.99. However, this figure does not reflect the actual cost of finished gasoline sold at stations.
“It would be irrelevant to the consumer to know what the price of RBOB is,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “They’re not paying the wholesale price.”
RBOB — Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending — is a gasoline precursor that must be mixed with ethanol and other additives before it becomes pump-ready fuel. It also does not include federal and state gas taxes, distribution, or retail markup, all of which contribute significantly to final pump prices.
As of May 7, the national average for regular gasoline stood at $3.15 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Mississippi had the lowest state average, at $2.65 per gallon, far above Trump’s claimed figure.
Presidents do not control gas prices. While Trump has repeatedly taken credit for price drops, analysts note that gasoline costs are driven primarily by the global crude oil market, not White House policy.
Trump has made similarly misleading comparisons using wholesale prices in the past, including when claiming significant drops in the cost of eggs.
If Trump’s $1.98 claim is indeed based on RBOB futures, it suggests he is comparing apples to oranges — citing commodity market prices while implying they reflect what Americans pay at the pump.
