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The House Republican Party is on the brink of a political standoff that could delay the certification of the Electoral College results on January 6, 2024.
Speaker Mike Johnson, struggling to unite his party, faces an uphill battle to retain the gavel amid internal dissent. The GOP’s slim majority has amplified tensions, with even a few defections jeopardizing Johnson’s leadership.
The stakes are high: without a speaker, the House cannot swear in its members or participate in the joint session to certify Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory.
“The country would be going into one big gray area,” said Steve Smith, a political science professor at Arizona State University. “Since 1789, electing a speaker has always been the first order of business. But today’s House is deeply divided.”
Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie has already announced he will not support Johnson in the Jan. 3 speaker vote. “I just don’t believe he’s the right leader to take us forward,” Massie stated in an interview, underscoring the fractures within the party.
While the House clerk presides over the speaker election and could potentially swear in members, any delay could disrupt the critical Jan. 6 session. Political experts agree the GOP must act swiftly to avoid chaos.
“They could elect a temporary speaker or find another procedural workaround,” said Derek Muller, a law professor at the University of Notre Dame. “But without a speaker, the House cannot fully organize itself, and that complicates its role in the certification process.”
Adding to the uncertainty is the Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022, which raises the threshold for objections to Electoral College results. Vice President Kamala Harris will oversee the joint session as Senate president. While procedural guardrails exist, experts warn that an unresolved speaker fight could hinder the House’s participation.
“The Republicans will be under tremendous pressure,” Muller added. “Trump himself would likely demand they resolve this quickly, given the importance of certifying his victory.”
With the GOP divided and time running out, Speaker Johnson faces one of the most significant tests of his leadership. The outcome could shape not only his future but also the trajectory of the 119th Congress.
