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The fragile pause in direct U.S. attacks on Iran has ended.
U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday after Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces were observed preparing to fire rockets and sea mines into the strategic waterway, according to U.S. Central Command.
It was the first U.S. military action against Iran in a month, abruptly ending a lull in fighting as the more than six-month-old war continues to threaten a region that depends heavily on the strait for global energy shipments.
Iran quickly vowed retaliation, saying several Revolutionary Guard members and other Iranians were killed or wounded in the attack.
The strikes come at a particularly sensitive moment. Just days ago, the Trump administration said it was shifting its focus away from additional military action and toward economic pressure designed to force Tehran back toward negotiations.
Now, the two sides are once again exchanging fire.
Why the Strait of Hormuz matters
The immediate flash point is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally passes.
The strait has become one of Iran’s most important sources of leverage since the war began.
Only a fraction of the commercial traffic that normally passes through the waterway is now making the journey. A multinational coalition overseen by the U.S. Navy said Sunday that commercial traffic remained at “reduced levels.”
Trump has repeatedly insisted that the strait remains open, pointing to dozens of vessels that have passed through in recent days.
But the current traffic is dramatically below prewar levels. Roughly 130 vessels crossed the strait each day before the conflict, compared with about 24 reported by Trump as having crossed last week.
Iran still possesses drones and missiles capable of threatening vessels moving through the waterway, while U.S. forces have been attempting to keep international shipping routes open.
The U.S. military said it recently completed clearing sea mines from international shipping routes in the strait.
Iran was preparing another attack, U.S. says
Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command, said Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines toward the strait.
The U.S. military responded by striking the launchers.
Iranian semiofficial media reported explosions near Larak Island, while the Revolutionary Guard acknowledged that members of its forces and other Iranians had been killed or injured.
Following the U.S. strikes, Iran launched several missiles toward Jordan, a U.S. ally, according to a person familiar with the operations. American forces intercepted the missiles, the person said.
The developments raise the possibility of another cycle of retaliation between the United States and Iran after weeks in which Washington had sought to reduce direct military operations.
Trump had been moving toward economic pressure
The strikes also represent a sharp change in the administration’s stated strategy.
Last week, Trump administration officials said Washington would emphasize economic pressure rather than continued military attacks as it sought to end the war.
The strategy has centered on threatening countries and companies with penalties if they continue doing business with Tehran.
The administration’s shift toward sanctions came as officials have faced concerns about U.S. weapons stockpiles after months of fighting.
The prolonged conflict has raised questions about whether the United States can maintain its military operations against Iran without affecting readiness for potential conflicts elsewhere.
Trump has also repeatedly suggested that Iran’s military capabilities and leadership have been severely weakened by the war.
But Tehran has continued to resist U.S. pressure.
Iranian officials say the country has suffered roughly $270 billion in direct and indirect economic damage since the conflict began. Israeli strikes during the opening weeks of the war also severely damaged Iran’s military and political leadership.
Despite those losses, Iran continues to maintain missile and drone capabilities and has used the Strait of Hormuz as a source of strategic leverage.
The war’s quick ending is looking less likely
The renewed fighting comes as Trump’s earlier calls for a rapid resolution to the conflict appear increasingly distant.
The president said last week that he was “not in a hurry” to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.
That shift suggests the administration may be preparing for a prolonged confrontation rather than an imminent diplomatic breakthrough.
Iran’s recent appointments to its senior security leadership have also signaled continued resistance to U.S. pressure, even after months of military attacks and economic sanctions.
The latest U.S. strike could therefore become more than a one-day exchange if Tehran follows through on its threat to retaliate.
The economic stakes are enormous
The biggest concern extends well beyond the United States and Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Any sustained disruption could affect global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, potentially pushing energy prices higher and creating additional economic pressure far beyond the Middle East.
The waterway was already operating at severely reduced capacity before Sunday’s strikes.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Organization said an unidentified projectile struck a tanker north of Khasab, Oman, on Saturday. No casualties or environmental damage were reported, and no group immediately claimed responsibility.
The U.S. military said it had redirected 83 commercial vessels and disabled three vessels as part of its blockade of Iranian ports.
Those actions underscore how deeply the conflict has become intertwined with global shipping.
What happens next
The immediate question is whether Sunday’s strike remains an isolated action or marks the beginning of another escalation.
Iran has already threatened military and economic retaliation. The United States, meanwhile, has demonstrated that it is prepared to strike Iranian forces if they threaten the Strait of Hormuz or American efforts to keep shipping routes open.
That leaves the region facing a familiar cycle: an attack, a retaliatory strike and the possibility of another escalation.
After a month without confirmed U.S. strikes on Iran, that cycle has now begun again.
And with the world’s energy markets watching the Strait of Hormuz, the consequences could extend far beyond the battlefield.
