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President Donald Trump’s newly signed tax and spending law will add $3.4 trillion to the U.S. national debt over the next decade and strip health insurance from 10 million Americans by 2034, according to a new report released Monday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The sweeping legislation, which Republicans passed without a single Democratic vote and Trump signed into law on July 4, extends major provisions of his 2017 tax overhaul while layering on controversial new spending and sharp cuts to social programs.
“This finalized independent analysis from the CBO confirms it: Republicans’ signature bill is the ultimate betrayal of the American people,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., in a blistering statement. “When people lose their jobs, when their bills go up, when they lose their health insurance — they’ll know exactly who did it.”
A High-Stakes, Party-Line Vote
The bill passed the Senate 51-50 after Republican leaders made last-minute changes to secure votes. Vice President J.D. Vance cast the tie-breaking vote. The House followed with a 218-214 vote.
Key features include:
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Permanent extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts.
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New tax deductions for tips and overtime pay (temporary).
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$300 billion in defense spending increases.
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Funding for Trump’s mass deportation plan.
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Cuts to Medicaid, SNAP benefits, and clean energy subsidies.
The CBO found that while the law slashes spending by $1.1 trillion, it reduces revenue by $4.5 trillion — resulting in a net deficit increase of $3.4 trillion over 10 years.
Insurance Losses and Health Care Fallout
The law’s healthcare provisions are especially controversial. The CBO estimates that 10 million more Americans will lack health insurance by 2034, largely due to:
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The law’s Medicaid cuts.
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Failure to extend pandemic-era ACA premium subsidies, which expire later this year.
Although the CBO projects a modest 0.6% drop in ACA benchmark premiums by 2034, Democrats say that figure masks deeper damage. Schumer warned that millions more could lose coverage when ACA enhancements lapse.
“They’ve taken away essential funding and put families’ health coverage on the chopping block,” Schumer said.
GOP Defends the Bill as Pro-Worker
Republicans, however, are touting the measure as a win for the working class.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said voters will reward Republicans for the law, citing its provisions that eliminate taxes on tips and overtime pay and enhance military funding and border security.
“This is a bill that was written for hardworking Americans,” Johnson told NBC News. “They’ll have higher wages, more opportunity, more economic growth — and that’s a major factor in a midterm election.”
When asked whether the bill might backfire in the 2026 midterms, Johnson replied: “No concerns at all. In fact, it’s going to gain seats for us.”
Democrats Target 2026 Elections
Democratic strategists are already framing the bill as a gift to the wealthy — funded by gutting programs for the poor and middle class. They point to the lopsided financials: $4.5 trillion in tax cuts versus only $1.1 trillion in spending reductions.
Recent polls show the law is deeply unpopular, with a majority of Americans saying it favors the rich.
“You’re giving tax breaks to billionaires while slashing food and health benefits for kids and working families,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash. “That’s morally indefensible — and politically toxic.”
As voters begin to feel the impact of the legislation, Democrats hope backlash will fuel turnout in 2026. In the meantime, the CBO report provides them with fresh ammunition.
“This bill isn’t beautiful — it’s brutal,” Jayapal said.
