President-elect Donald Trump has tempered expectations about his ability to bring down grocery prices, a central promise of his 2024 presidential campaign.
In an interview with Time magazine, which named him Person of the Year, Trump admitted that reversing the upward trend in food costs may prove difficult.
“Look, they got them up. I’d like to bring them down. It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up. You know, it’s very hard,” Trump told Time. However, he expressed confidence that energy policy changes and supply chain improvements would eventually lower costs, adding, “I think energy is going to bring them down. I think a better supply chain is going to bring them down. You know, the supply chain is still broken. It’s broken.”
Trump has pledged to expand American energy production, which is already at record levels, and to address supply chain inefficiencies. Yet he did not detail specific measures to resolve these challenges, instead criticizing the Biden administration’s incentives for electric vehicles.
Experts are skeptical of some of Trump’s proposed policies, such as his promise to reinstate tariffs. During his first term, similar tariffs exacerbated supply chain issues, contributing to a 70% spike in ocean container shipping costs, according to Xeneta, a shipping pricing platform. “Trump’s import tariffs are ‘history repeating’ and will cause a spike in ocean container shipping markets — with consumers picking up the cost,” Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst, warned in September.
Food prices have risen 23% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, largely during President Joe Biden’s tenure. However, price growth has slowed significantly in the past year to less than 2%, fueled by moderating agricultural import costs, falling container shipping rates, and low gasoline prices averaging $3 per gallon.
Despite the improvements, food costs remain volatile due to external factors like the avian flu, which has driven up egg prices. Trump’s proposed stricter immigration policies, including deportations, could further strain the agricultural labor force, potentially worsening food price inflation.
“If we have labor shortages, and we can’t get our crops picked and sent to market, it could have an impact at the grocery shelves,” warned Joe Del Bosque, CEO of Del Bosque Farms in California. “There could be less fruits or vegetables in the produce area and it could drive prices higher.”
While Trump maintains that his presidency would not be a failure if grocery prices do not fall, the issue remains a critical test of his economic agenda and leadership.
