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North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced Sunday he won’t seek reelection when his term ends next year, opening up a seat that will become central to control of Congress during next year’s midterms.
Tillis’ announcement came just hours after he voted against moving forward with Republicans’ tax and spending cuts package, eliciting a wave of criticism on social media from President Donald Trump.
Tillis wrote in a statement that it “has been a blessing to go on a journey from living in a trailer park and making minimum wage as a young man to having the honor of serving as U.S. Senator for North Carolina.”
His proudest accomplishments, he wrote, were the “bipartisan victories,” including “working across the aisle in the Senate to pass the largest investment in mental health in American history, passing the Respect for Marriage Act and monumental infrastructure investments, and reestablishing the Senate NATO Observer Group.
“Sometimes those bipartisan initiatives got me into trouble with my own party, but I wouldn’t have changed a single one.”
Tillis wrote he looks “forward to continuing to serve North Carolina over the next 18 months. I look forward to solely focusing on producing meaningful results without the distraction of raising money or campaigning for another election. I look forward to having the pure freedom to call the balls and strikes as I see fit and representing the great people of North Carolina to the best of my ability.”
Targeted by Trump over vote
Tills’ announcement followed several hectic days on Capitol Hill, where GOP leaders sought to sway him to support the party’s “big, beautiful bill,” though he ultimately voted against advancing the tax and spending cut legislation toward final passage on Saturday night.
That vote elicited a torrent of rebuke from Trump on social media.
“Numerous people have come forward wanting to run in the Primary against ‘Senator Thom’ Tillis,” Trump wrote in one post. ‘I will be meeting with them over the coming weeks, looking for someone who will properly represent the Great People of North Carolina and, so importantly, the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Tillis, 64, became a member of the state House of Representatives in 2007 before rising to become speaker in 2011. He held that position until 2014, when he was elected to the U.S. Senate.
Tillis secured reelection in 2020 with 48.7% of the vote compared to his Democratic opponent’s 46.9%. The two were separated by fewer than 96,000 votes out of more than 5.2 million cast.
His term will officially expire in January 2027, but the contest to replace him is expected to begin quickly.
2026 election
Republicans will want whoever emerges from their primary well positioned to fend off a general election challenge. Democrats will be just as focused on the state as they look to regain control of the Senate following the 2026 midterm elections.
Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate and while the map is highly favorable to the GOP, Democrats are expected to spend a considerable amount of time and money trying to flip seats.
North Carolina and Maine are the two most likely pick-up opportunities for Democrats and an open seat in North Carolina could help them a bit. But Democrats still face long odds to flip other seats in deeply red states like Alabama, Florida, Montana and West Virginia.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter had rated both Maine and North Carolina as leaning toward Republican wins next year, though its analysts moved North Carolina into the “toss-up” category a few hours after the Tillis retirement announcement.
Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors editor for CPR, wrote that Tillis’ retirement “officially makes the Tar Heel State Democrats’ top pickup opportunity.”
“The vulnerability of this seat, however, does not alter the overall Senate math for 2026,” Taylor added. “Even if Democrats were to win here in 2026, they’d still need to flip three more seats, including at least two in deep red states, in order to win a bare majority.”
Democrats not only need to pick up several seats to regain control of the Senate but will need to defend an open seat in Michigan and Sen. Jon Ossoff’s seat in deeply red Georgia.
The Cook Political Report rates both Georgia and Michigan as “toss-up races.”
Campaign committees react
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., wrote in a statement he expects North Carolina will stay red following the midterms.
“President Trump has won North Carolina three times, and the state’s been represented by two Republican Senators for over a decade,” Scott wrote. “That streak will continue in 2026 when North Carolinians elect a conservative leader committed to advancing an agenda of opportunity, prosperity, and security.”
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maeve Coyle released a written statement just minutes after the announcement that “Tillis’ decision not to run for reelection is another blow to Republicans’ chances as they face a midterm backlash that puts their majority at risk.
“Even Tillis admits the GOP plan to slash Medicaid and spike costs for families is toxic — and in 2026, Democrats will flip North Carolina’s Senate seat.”
Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said during an interview with NC Newsline just a few days before Tillis’ announcement that the state represented “one of our best pickup opportunities in the Senate” in 2026.
Martin said he had spoken with former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper about potentially running for the Senate seat.
Tillis seat is a top Democratic target in 2026
Senator Thom Tillis’s seat has long been viewed as a top target for Democrats as they work to regain control of the Senate. Last Thursday — prior to the senator’s vote against President Donald Trump’s so-call “one big beautiful bill” — Democratic National Committee Chairperson Ken Martin was in Raleigh and, in an interview with NC Newsline reporter Brandon Kingdollar, spoke optimistically about his party’s chances for ousting Tillis.
“Senator Tillis continues to support policies that are really out of the mainstream of where most North Carolinians are at,” Martin said. “He continues to make himself vulnerable in a very much swing, purple state.”
Former Democratic Congressman Wiley Nickel — the only announced Democratic candidate for the North Carolina Senate seat — issued a statement Sunday afternoon in response to the Tillis announcement vowing to defeat whomever Republicans nominate, saying in part: “No matter which MAGA loyalist Donald Trump hand-picks to run in North Carolina, I’m the Democrat who’s ready to take them on and win. I’ve flipped a tough seat before and we’re going to do it again.”
In a statement, North Carolina Democratic Party chair Anderson Clayton gave voice to a similar sentiment, saying in part:
No matter who the NCGOP chooses as a rubber stamp to green light their extreme cuts to funding for public schools, slashes to Social Security and Medicare, and attacks against reproductive freedom, we’ll be ready to fight back.
Let’s be clear: today’s decision shows just how much influence the most fringe right-wing voices have in their primary.
State GOP chair Jason Simmons — a Trump loyalist — posted a statement on X that only wished Tillis well:
Immediate impact in the Senate
University of Richmond law professor Carl Tobias, who closely follows’ Tillis’s work on the Judiciary Committee, said it’s “unfortunate that Trump can do this to someone” with the Senator’s level of experience. He added that the loss of Tillis likely increases the chances that Democrats pick up the seat in 2026.
“He has been a voice for reason on that committee and in other contexts, and so I’d rather have somebody like him than somebody who always votes party line,” Tobias said. “It’s too bad, but it may be an opening for Democrats in North Carolina, which would be valuable to that party.”
Tobias added that in forcing out Tillis, Trump may have endangered many of his own judicial selections in the year-and-a-half ahead. Because Senate Republicans hold only a 12-10 majority on the Judiciary Committee, Tillis can tank a vote on any nominee by defecting, which he may be more inclined to do now that he no longer has to fear a primary challenge.
“This has given him freedom, right? He doesn’t have the shadow of Trump, he can be completely independent,” Tobias said. “If he sees a nominee who he thinks is incompetent or even too Trumpian, he might vote no, which would be a great thing.”
Tillis’s retirement may also pose a problem for the four district court vacancies in North Carolina, on which Tillis took the lead on negotiations with the White House owing to his spot on Judiciary. If the two sides stand at an impasse, those seats may go unfilled for years — creating more strain on the federal court system in the state in the interim.
Tillis’s full retirement statement can be read here.
by Jennifer Shutt, NC Newsline
NC Newsline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. NC Newsline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Rob Schofield for questions: info@ncnewsline.com.
