Poli Alert Political & Civics
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Jimmy Williams
Trump’s Decisive Win
Former President Donald Trump secured a significant victory in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, leading with 55% against Nikki Haley’s 44%. This win, combined with his success in the Iowa caucuses, strengthens Trump’s position in the GOP nominating contest for 2024. Haley, despite over-performing some late polling, faces a challenging path forward.
Slim Path For Haley
New Hampshire was seen as a potentially winnable state for someone other than Trump, particularly for Haley. However, she fell short of making a compelling case for a competitive race. Early exit polls revealed that a significant portion of GOP primary voters weren’t registered Republicans, and the electorate exhibited characteristics less favorable to Trump. The outcome suggests a challenging road ahead for Haley, with South Carolina polls showing limited closeness.
Mixed Feelings Toward Haley
Exit polls indicated that Trump supporters overwhelmingly cited strongly favorable views of him, while Haley’s supporters were less enthusiastic. Only about one-third of Haley’s voters expressed strongly favorable views, with nearly 3 in 10 having reservations about her. This lack of excitement raises questions about her viability in less-favorable states.
Other Exit Poll Findings
Additional findings from exit polls showed that fewer New Hampshire voters denied the results of the 2020 election compared to Iowa voters. A majority opposed a federal law banning most or all abortions, and a notable percentage believed Trump wouldn’t be fit to serve as president if convicted of a crime, indicating potential implications for the general election.
Haley’s Reasons for Staying In
Despite Trump’s decisive wins, Haley signaled that she won’t drop out, emphasizing that “this race is far from over.” Her argument revolves around concerns about Trump’s electoral track record and age, suggesting that a Trump nomination could lead to a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency. However, with a majority of Republicans standing by Trump and a lack of clear events reshaping the race, Haley’s reasons for staying in appear elusive.
Biden’s Big Win
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden had a big win in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, despite not actively campaigning in the state and not even being on the ballot. The early results suggest overwhelming support for Biden, reinforcing expectations of him securing the Democratic nomination.
Overall, Trump’s dominance in the GOP primaries and Biden’s success in the Democratic primary solidify their positions in their respective parties, setting the tone for the upcoming contests.
