The latest Ken Paxton vs James Talarico polls show Democrat James Talarico holding a narrow lead in the Texas U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%, as early voting gets underway across the state. The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs released the survey Sunday night, one day before polls opened, and it puts a Democrat within reach of a Senate seat Texas has not handed to the party since 1988.
Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee, is Texas’ attorney general, the state’s top lawyer, a job he has held for more than a decade. He won the GOP nomination in May by knocking out four term Sen. John Cornyn with Trump’s endorsement. Paxton also brings history into the race. The Republican controlled Texas House impeached him in 2023 on charges that included bribery and abuse of office, and the Texas Senate acquitted him.
James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, is a state representative from Austin, a former public school teacher and a Presbyterian seminarian, meaning he has studied to become a minister. He beat U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March Democratic primary and is running as a candidate who can win over voters from both parties. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot.
The University of Houston surveyed 2,000 likely voters, people screened as the most likely to actually cast a ballot, from Oct. 10 to 14. Talarico pulled 48%, Paxton 46%, Brown 3%, and 3% were unsure. The poll’s margin of error is 2.19 points, which means each candidate’s true support could be about two points higher or lower than the number shown. A two point lead falls inside that range, so the race is close enough that either man could be ahead right now.
Talarico’s edge comes from voters crossing party lines. According to the poll, 60% of independents and 6% of Republicans plan to vote for him. Party loyalty also splits unevenly at the top of the ticket: 98% of voters backing Democrat Gina Hinojosa for governor also back Talarico, while 92% of voters backing Republican Gov. Greg Abbott say the same about Paxton. The sample was not stacked with Democrats either. It included 42% self identified Republicans, 31% Democrats and 23% independents.
Voters do not love either candidate, but they like Paxton less. Net favorability is the share of voters who view a candidate positively minus the share who view him negatively. Paxton sits at minus 16, while Talarico sits at minus 3. The same poll found 54% of likely Texas voters view Trump unfavorably, compared with 46% who view him favorably.
Other October Ken Paxton vs James Talarico polls mostly line up with the University of Houston numbers. Marist had Talarico ahead 47% to 45%. The University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project had him up 50% to 47%. ReconMR showed Talarico leading 48% to 44%. InsiderAdvantage was the outlier, putting Paxton ahead 49% to 48% in a survey of 1,200 likely voters taken Oct. 13 and 14, the only one of the six most recent public polls with the Republican in front.
On the trail, debates have become a fight of their own. Talarico has agreed to four debates, and Paxton has not agreed to any. At an Oct. 7 rally in San Antonio, Trump called on Talarico to report to a debate stage against Paxton, and Talarico’s campaign answered that the ball was now in Paxton’s court. Paxton and Trump have also hammered Talarico for being off the campaign trail since late September. Talarico’s campaign said he had the flu, while Paxton led his San Antonio crowd in a “Where is James Talarico?” chant and his campaign paid for missing person posters of the Democrat around the state. Talarico’s campaign says he has held more than 100 public events and accuses Paxton of ignoring Texans.
The stakes stretch beyond Texas. The last Democrat to win a U.S. Senate election in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, and no Democrat has won any statewide office in Texas in more than 30 years. Republicans currently hold a 53 to 47 majority in the U.S. Senate, so a Talarico win would take a seat Republicans have counted on for decades and narrow the path to keeping control of the chamber.
Early voting in Texas runs from Monday, Oct. 19, through Friday, Oct. 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Voters casting a ballot in person need an acceptable form of photo ID. Anyone voting by mail must have an application received by their county’s early voting clerk by Oct. 23. In Harris County, voters are not tied to one location and can vote at any county vote center during early voting and on Election Day.
