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California and Iowa voters delivered a series of closely watched primary results Tuesday that could shape the fight for control of Congress and key statewide offices in the 2026 midterm elections.
While California’s slow vote-counting process left several contests unresolved, early returns provided a clearer picture of the state’s gubernatorial race and several competitive congressional districts. In Iowa, Democrats selected their nominee for a Senate race they hope can become competitive, while Republican voters delivered an upset in the governor’s race by rejecting a candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump.
California Governor’s Race Takes Shape
In California’s open gubernatorial contest, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra appeared well-positioned to secure one of two spots on the November ballot under the state’s top-two primary system.
The battle for the second general election slot remained unsettled between Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Democratic billionaire investor Tom Steyer. Because California typically counts a large number of mail ballots after Election Day — ballots that often trend more Democratic — final results could take days or weeks to become clear.
The race follows a dramatic reshuffling of the Democratic field after several high-profile potential candidates declined to run, creating one of the state’s most competitive gubernatorial primaries in decades.
Los Angeles Mayor Advances
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass secured a place on the November ballot, but the race for the second spot remained too close to call.
Republican reality television personality Spencer Pratt initially appeared positioned to advance, but later vote updates showed progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman gaining ground. Analysts noted that additional ballots counted in the coming days could further benefit Democratic candidates.
Democrats Score Win in Iowa Senate Primary
In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, defeating state Sen. Zach Wahls by roughly 25 percentage points with nearly all votes counted.
The primary drew national attention after Democratic-aligned super PAC VoteVets invested heavily in support of Turek. Wahls attempted to frame the contest as a referendum on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, but the strategy failed to gain traction with voters.
Turek now advances to face Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in November. While Iowa remains a Republican-leaning state that Trump carried comfortably in 2024, Democrats believe economic concerns, including the impact of tariffs on Iowa’s agriculture sector, could create an opening.
Some political analysts upgraded the race’s competitiveness following Tuesday’s results, shifting it from a likely Republican victory to a race that leans Republican.
Trump-Endorsed Candidate Falls Short in Iowa Governor’s Race
One of the night’s biggest surprises came in Iowa’s Republican gubernatorial primary.
Rep. Randy Feenstra, who received Trump’s endorsement just days before the election, narrowly lost to businessman Zach Lahn.
The defeat marks one of the most notable losses for a Trump-backed candidate during the 2026 election cycle and raises questions about the strength of presidential endorsements in lower-profile statewide races.
Lahn, who received support from Turning Point Action and former Rep. Steve King, will now face Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand in the general election. Democrats view the governor’s race as one of their better opportunities in Iowa, particularly given Sand’s statewide popularity and fundraising success.
Montana Races Draw National Attention
Montana also delivered developments that could affect the battle for Congress.
Democrat Alani Bankhead won her party’s Senate nomination, a result that some strategists believe could benefit independent candidate Seth Bodnar, a former University of Montana president and Iraq War veteran.
Some Democrats hope Bodnar can emerge as the strongest challenger to Republican former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme in a state Trump won comfortably in 2024. Bankhead, however, has rejected suggestions that she would step aside to clear the field for the independent candidate.
Meanwhile, Montana’s open 1st Congressional District remains a target for Democrats after Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke decided not to seek reelection.
South Dakota Governor’s Race Headed Toward Runoff
In South Dakota, Gov. Larry Rhoden struggled to secure a commanding lead in a crowded Republican primary.
Businessman Toby Doeden advanced to a likely runoff after neither candidate appeared poised to reach the state’s 35% threshold required for an outright victory. Rep. Dusty Johnson also remained competitive late into the evening.
If no candidate exceeds the threshold, South Dakota law requires the top two finishers to compete in a runoff election.
Early Midterm Signals Emerge
Tuesday’s primaries offered an early glimpse into the political landscape heading into November.
Democrats found reasons for optimism in Iowa and Montana, where they are attempting to expand the map in traditionally Republican territory. Republicans, meanwhile, continue to benefit from favorable political conditions in many red states but saw signs that Trump’s endorsements do not guarantee victory in every race.
With control of the House and Senate likely to hinge on a handful of competitive contests, the results underscored how both parties are positioning themselves for what could be one of the most consequential midterm elections in recent history.
