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The administration of Donald Trump is racing to replace billions of dollars in lost tariff revenue after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a major portion of the president’s trade agenda last month.
If the administration’s new tariffs move forward, American households could pay an average of $2,512 in import taxes in 2026, according to a study released Friday by Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee.
That would represent a 44% increase from the estimated $1,745 in tariff costs last year, the report found, potentially adding pressure on consumers already facing high living costs and rising energy prices linked to the conflict involving Iran.
Supreme Court ruling forces policy shift
Trump last year invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from nearly every country.
But in a ruling issued Feb. 20, the Supreme Court said the law does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs, forcing the administration to abandon the measure.
The decision is expected to require the federal government to refund about $175 billion to importers who paid the now-invalidated tariffs.
White House disputes Democratic analysis
Maggie Hassan, a Democrat from New Hampshire and the top Democrat on the Joint Economic Committee, said the administration’s response will raise prices for consumers.
“Despite a Supreme Court ruling that much of Trump’s tariff agenda is illegal, the administration refuses to provide relief for families,” Hassan said.
The White House rejected the analysis.
Spokesman Kush Desai called the report “phony,” saying Trump will continue using tariffs to renegotiate trade agreements and attract investment to the United States.
Administration pivots to new tariff powers
To replace the lost revenue, the administration is pursuing several alternative legal authorities to impose new tariffs.
Trump has already announced a 10% tariff using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with the possibility of raising it to 15%.
However, those tariffs can only last 150 days unless Congress approves an extension, and they are already facing legal challenges.
A more durable option is Section 301 of the Trade Act, which allows tariffs against countries accused of unfair trade practices.
Earlier this week, Jamieson Greer, the Office of the United States Trade Representative chief, launched a sweeping Section 301 investigation into 16 U.S. trading partners, including China and the European Union, over claims they are overproducing goods and harming American industries.
“The United States will no longer sacrifice its industrial base,” Greer said in a statement announcing the probe.
Trade experts expect broader tariffs
Trade analysts say the investigation could lead to a new round of tariffs covering a wide range of imports.
Ryan Majerus, a trade lawyer and former U.S. trade official now with King & Spalding, said the administration’s strategy was widely anticipated.
“The fact that they launched 301 investigations is not surprising,” Majerus said. “We all knew that’s what they were going to pivot to.”
Additional investigations could examine issues including forced labor in supply chains, digital services taxes, pharmaceutical pricing and environmental concerns.
Consumers likely to bear the cost
The Democratic report argues that most of the cost of tariffs ultimately falls on American consumers.
According to analysis cited from the Congressional Budget Office, importers pass about 70% of tariff costs directly to consumers.
Domestic manufacturers can also raise prices when tariffs reduce foreign competition, meaning consumers effectively pay the full cost.
Political risks ahead of midterms
The renewed tariff push comes as global tensions and the war involving Iran push up prices for gasoline and other commodities ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Majerus said economic pressures could shape how aggressively the administration pursues new tariffs.
“If the affordability and other political issues really start to become cumbersome,” he said, “that certainly can impact all this.”
