According to the Alaska Division of Elections, Peltola had received 106,321 votes, or approximately 48.6%, compared with Sullivan’s 103,804 votes, or 47.5%, in the latest available count posted Monday, November 9. Her lead stood at 2,517 votes, a significant increase from the 637-vote advantage she held in an earlier count.
The race remains uncalled because neither candidate has secured a majority of first-choice votes. Additional absentee and early ballots are still being processed, with another substantial update expected Tuesday.
The contest is particularly important because the outcome could help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate during the final two years of Donald Trump’s term.
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Peltola, a former Alaska congresswoman, is attempting to unseat Sullivan, who has represented the state in the Senate since 2015. Sullivan is seeking another six-year term.
Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system adds another layer to the contest. Voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and those ballots are redistributed according to voters’ next choices. The process continues until one candidate receives a majority of the continuing ballots.
Republican Gerald Heikes and independent candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. are also on the ballot. The latter has become a major source of controversy because his name closely resembles that of the Republican incumbent.
Earlier preliminary calculations suggested Sullivan could benefit from the redistribution of votes from eliminated candidates. However, the updated count changed that assessment. The Alaska Beacon reported that Peltola’s expanded first-choice advantage was large enough to overcome Sullivan’s previously projected ranked-choice advantage.
An analysis published by Alaska News also found that Peltola moved ahead in its updated ranked-choice calculations using the state’s ballot-level data. Those calculations are not the official final result, which will come from the state’s formal tabulation.
The race has also been surrounded by legal and political disputes involving the second Dan Sullivan.
The Trump administration’s Justice Department filed a lawsuit seeking to investigate whether votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. were intended for the incumbent and to potentially prevent certification of the election if the Republican lost under circumstances in which those votes could have changed the outcome.
A federal judge dismissed the lawsuit last week, ruling that the requested investigation was not workable after voters had already cast ballots and that the government had not provided a practical way to examine the ballots while protecting voter secrecy.
The Associated Press reported that the Justice Department subsequently filed notice of an appeal. The department has maintained that the second Sullivan entered the race to confuse voters, an allegation that has not been established through a court finding.
Peltola has denied involvement in recruiting the second Sullivan. The Republican incumbent has argued that the candidate’s presence could divert votes from him.
The dispute has drawn additional attention because the race is close enough that a few thousand votes could influence the final outcome.
For Democrats, a Peltola victory would represent a major pickup opportunity in a state that Donald Trump carried in the 2024 presidential election. For Republicans, losing Sullivan’s seat would make an already difficult fight to maintain Senate control even more challenging.
For now, the Alaska Senate race remains unresolved. Election officials must finish processing outstanding ballots before the state conducts its scheduled November 18 ranked-choice tabulation, unless a candidate crosses the majority threshold earlier.
Until then, Peltola holds the advantage in the latest reported count, but the final outcome has not been determined.
