A new U.S. intelligence assessment has concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin is more determined than ever to continue the war in Ukraine and secure victory on the battlefield, according to a senior U.S. official and a senior congressional official familiar with the findings.
The classified analysis, shared with lawmakers earlier this month, indicates that American intelligence agencies see no signs that Russia is ready to compromise, even as President Donald Trump presses forward with his long-promised effort to broker peace between Moscow and Kyiv.
The assessment reinforces long-standing Western intelligence views that Putin remains committed to his 2022 invasion goals. But officials said Putin’s resolve has only hardened — even amid mounting troop losses and deepening economic strain at home — as he seeks to justify the human and financial costs by securing more Ukrainian territory.
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Trump’s frustration grows
The intelligence warning comes as Trump’s relationship with Putin shows visible strain. Last week, Trump canceled a planned meeting with the Russian leader in Budapest, Hungary, and for the first time since returning to office in January, he imposed new sanctions on Moscow — targeting two major Russian oil companies.
“I just felt it was time,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. He called the measures “tremendous” but added that he hoped “they won’t be on for long,” emphasizing his desire to “stop the killing and make a deal.”
A White House spokesperson declined to discuss the intelligence assessment directly, pointing instead to Trump’s public remarks. “He has been clear that it is time to stop the killing and make a deal to end the war,” the official said in a statement. “The United States will continue to advocate for a peaceful resolution … but a permanent peace depends on Russia’s willingness to negotiate in good faith.”
Peace push falters
Trump campaigned on a promise to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, but after months of outreach and high-profile diplomacy, his efforts have failed to produce results.
In recent weeks, Trump has voiced frustration with Putin, accusing him of failing to act on what the U.S. president described as encouraging private talks. “Every time I speak with Vladimir, I have good conversations, and then they don’t go anywhere,” Trump said last week.
Trump briefly floated the idea of providing long-range U.S.-made Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, a move Kyiv has sought for months, before walking it back after a phone call with Putin.
Pressure builds from allies
Ukraine and its allies in Europe and Congress have repeatedly urged Trump to increase military aid and toughen sanctions on Russia to force Moscow toward serious negotiations. Until last week, Trump had resisted imposing new penalties on Russia, arguing that doing so might jeopardize his peace initiative.
The sanctions on Russian oil companies, combined with Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and European weapons transfers to Kyiv, could eventually shift the Kremlin’s calculus, several European diplomats and former U.S. intelligence officials said.
A stalled peace track
In August, the White House described a Putin-Trump summit in Alaska as a “promising step” toward possible peace talks. But since then, the war has continued unabated, and Moscow has reiterated hard-line demands that Ukraine surrender territory, renounce NATO membership, and reject any Western peacekeeping deployment — conditions Kyiv and its allies have rejected outright.
For now, the intelligence community’s latest assessment suggests little movement toward compromise from Russia, even as the Trump administration faces growing political and diplomatic pressure to deliver on its promise to end Europe’s bloodiest conflict in decades.
