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A devastating flash flood in Texas that killed at least 80 people, including children at a summer camp, has put the Trump administration’s deep staffing cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) under intense scrutiny, as experts, former officials, and lawmakers warn that the country’s ability to forecast deadly storms is dangerously compromised.
The NWS office responsible for issuing warnings in the hard-hit Texas Hill Country had just five staffers on duty during the overnight hours when torrential rain fell — a standard shift, but one now viewed as insufficient amid widespread staff shortages caused by budget cuts and a controversial effort to reduce the federal workforce.
“This situation is getting to the point where something could break,” warned Louis Uccellini, who led the NWS under presidents of both parties. “The people are being tired out… Anything like that could create a situation in which important elements of forecasts and warnings are missed.”
Cuts and Chaos: A System Under Strain
The National Weather Service has lost more than 550 employees since Trump returned to office, part of a wave of retirements encouraged by executive orders empowering the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — initially led by billionaire Elon Musk — to enact massive job and budget cuts. While Musk has since split with Trump, his downsizing policies remain in place, with some offices losing more than 20% of their workforce.
Among those affected was the NWS office covering Austin/San Antonio, which is currently missing 6 of 27 staff positions, including a critical coordinator who left in April after being urged to retire early.
In addition to layoffs, weather satellite data sharing with the Pentagon has been halted, Spanish-language alerts were temporarily dropped, and federal climate observatories like Mauna Loa are facing closure under Trump’s budget proposal.
Despite mounting evidence, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick denied at a Senate hearing that the administration had cut forecasters. “We are fully staffed with forecasters and scientists,” he said, calling reports of layoffs “fake news.”
However, NOAA itself recently announced it was trying to fill 100 mission-critical roles, raising questions about the administration’s claim of full staffing.
Political Reactions and Public Outrage
While Republican leaders in Texas largely avoided direct criticism of Trump’s cuts, Democrats seized on the tragedy. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer demanded an inquiry into whether the staff shortages contributed to the catastrophic loss of life.
“This email went to every Social Security subscriber and every word of it is a lie,” Schumer said on social media. “Social Security benefits are still taxed. This big, ugly bill doesn’t change that.”
Former officials called the Trump team’s response misleading and dangerous.
“Would private weather services protect small communities in rural Maine?” asked D. James Baker, NOAA administrator under Bill Clinton. “Without accountability and equal access, we’re risking lives.”
Privatization Push and Risks to Forecasting
The cuts align with Trump’s renewed support for Project 2025, a far-right blueprint to dismantle federal agencies like NOAA and privatize weather forecasting. Critics say that would force Americans to rely on private services for warnings, potentially delaying emergency alerts or prioritizing profit over public safety.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami has mostly been spared, but other Florida offices — from Tampa to Key West — are facing up to 40% staffing shortfalls.
“We may not know exactly how strong a hurricane is before it reaches the coastline,” John Morales, a prominent meteorologist at NBC 6 Miami, warned on-air June 3.
Looking Ahead
The storm in Texas is not the first deadly disaster to raise alarm about the nation’s weakening forecasting infrastructure — but it may be a turning point. As climate risks grow and hurricane season begins, scientists say lives will depend on whether Congress reverses course — and whether Americans can still rely on their government to see the storm coming.
“Forecast quality is becoming degraded,” Morales said bluntly. “That’s the reality we now face.”
