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Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a tentative trade truce with China, saying Beijing has agreed to ease restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets critical to American industry, while the U.S. will halt efforts to revoke Chinese student visas.
The announcement came via social media following two days of high-stakes talks in London between U.S. and Chinese negotiators. While Trump hailed the outcome as a “deal,” U.S. officials later clarified it is not a formal agreement but a framework for future negotiations.
“WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT!” Trump posted on social media, though the math and terms were later contradicted by his own aides.
A White House official, speaking anonymously, said the 55% figure included existing tariffs from Trump’s first term, not an increase. In reality, the U.S. had previously agreed in Geneva to roll back tariffs to 30% after both countries imposed retaliatory hikes that reached triple digits, threatening to collapse bilateral trade.
Rare Earths at the Center
Rare earth minerals—used in smartphones, electric vehicles, and military hardware—became a flashpoint in recent months. In April, China introduced licensing restrictions that disrupted U.S. access to these materials. At the London talks, the Chinese delegation agreed to resume and expedite shipments, temporarily defusing the crisis.
“They [China] can turn that spigot on and off at will,” said Dan Kritenbrink, a former U.S. diplomat. “They really have incredible leverage over the United States in the global economy with rare earths.”
Student Visas and Quiet Concessions
In exchange, Trump said the U.S. will stop efforts to revoke visas of Chinese nationals on U.S. college campuses, a proposal that had alarmed universities and business leaders who view Chinese students as critical to research and innovation.
Details Remain Vague
Despite Trump’s celebratory tone, Beijing has not confirmed the agreement. Neither President Xi Jinping nor Trump has signed any formal document, and no joint statement was released. Analysts caution the truce is fragile and could unravel quickly.
“This is a handshake deal… it can change at any time,” said Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow at George Mason University.
The deal follows months of erratic tariff escalations. Trump previously imposed a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, raised it to 54%, and then retaliated with a 145% tariff when Beijing countered. Financial markets tumbled before the Geneva rollback to 30%.
U.S. Leverage Weakens
Critics argue that Trump’s aggressive tariff policy has failed to deliver long-term gains. Danny Russel, a former State Department official, said the administration had to backtrack on its student visa threats and high tariffs in exchange for a vague promise on mineral shipments.
“It’s ending with a whimper, not a bang,” Russel said. “The U.S. found it needed to back off the restrictions it had thought would generate leverage.”
The U.S. had also recently raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, threatening the European Union with similar hikes, only to back off. The Trump administration has often struggled to maintain a consistent trade policy, confusing both allies and American businesses.
“We have no idea what the rules are,” said Rick Woldenberg, CEO of Learning Resources, a U.S. toy company suing over the tariffs.
Human Rights Concerns Linger
Meanwhile, a report from the Netherlands-based Global Rights Compliance warned that dozens of global brands—including Walmart, Coca-Cola, Avon, and Sherwin-Williams—may be exposed to forced labor risks tied to minerals sourced from Xinjiang, where the Chinese government has been accused of abusing Uyghur Muslims.
The report casts a shadow over the truce and highlights the complex moral and geopolitical dynamics surrounding trade with China.
What’s Next?
While Trump claimed the new framework “sets the stage” for broader trade cooperation, analysts say the lack of concrete enforcement mechanisms means the arrangement could collapse under renewed pressure.
“The alternative is no truce at all,” said Kritenbrink, “and a supply chain war that threatens not just U.S. and Chinese economies but the global economy as well.”
For now, the London framework buys both sides time—but little else.
