“Texas is excruciatingly close,” Cruz said during an episode of his podcast released Wednesday. “Understand, we could lose Texas. Let me repeat that: We could lose Texas. And by the way, not just the Senate race. We could lose every single statewide race in Texas.”
Cruz’s warning comes as Democrats mount competitive challenges in a state Republicans have controlled for decades. Several recent polls show Democrat James Talarico competing closely with Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, while Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa is challenging Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.
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The latest polling illustrates the competitiveness of the Senate contest. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted October 20 through October 27 found Talarico leading Paxton 49% to 43% among likely voters. A Texas Southern University poll released around the same time showed Talarico ahead 49% to 47%. Other surveys have shown the candidates tied or separated by only a few percentage points.
The governor’s race is also drawing attention. An October CNN poll put Abbott at 48% and Hinojosa at 46%, while a Texas Southern University survey showed Abbott leading 50% to 47%.
The numbers represent a different political environment from 2024, when Cruz defeated Democratic challenger Colin Allred by more than eight percentage points and Donald Trump carried Texas by approximately 14 points.
Cruz acknowledged that some Republicans remain skeptical of polling, arguing that surveys often lean toward Democrats. But he said the turnout figures he has examined should concern his party.
“Now, some conservatives, they say, ‘I don’t trust the polls. The polls are all wrong,’” Cruz said. “Well, let me tell you that there is a bias in the polls. They do skew left, but I can tell you, having run a lot of campaigns, have examined a lot of numbers, these data are not fake. The Democrats are massively out-turning-out the Republicans.”
Texas has seen a significant increase in early voting ahead of the November 3 election. More than 6 million ballots had been cast by October 30, according to available election tracking data.
However, Texas does not register voters by political party, meaning the state does not provide an official statewide breakdown of early ballots by party affiliation. Claims about which party is leading turnout are based on voter history, modeling and other estimates rather than an official count of Democratic and Republican ballots.
Cruz also warned that Republican losses could extend beyond the Senate race, potentially affecting control of the Texas Legislature and other statewide offices.
“I don’t want to wake up in a world where Texas is all blue, where we’ve lost every statewide race, where the Democrats have a massive majority in the Senate, a massive majority in the House,” Cruz said. “Once that happens, there’s no turning back. … I’m pleading with you: Show up and vote.”
Republicans are also investing heavily in the Senate contest. The Senate Leadership Fund, a major Republican super PAC, has directed substantial resources toward helping Paxton defeat Talarico. The Texas Tribune reported that billionaire Elon Musk contributed $158 million to the group, with much of the money ultimately supporting Paxton’s campaign through an affiliated political action committee.
The outside spending underscores the national attention surrounding the Texas Senate race, which could influence the balance of power in Washington.
For Democrats, a victory in Texas would mark a significant breakthrough in a state where Republicans have won every statewide election since 1994. For Republicans, the contests represent an effort to maintain their political dominance while defending seats that are drawing unusually competitive challenges.
Early voting ends October 30, with Election Day scheduled for November 3. The results will determine whether Republicans retain their statewide stronghold or Democrats make significant gains in one of the country’s largest states.
