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Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill has won the New Jersey governor’s race, defeating Republican Jack Ciattarelli in a closely watched contest that became a referendum on President Donald Trump’s influence in a blue-leaning state, NBC News projected Tuesday.
Sherrill’s victory cements her as one of her party’s rising national figures and delivers Democrats a third straight term in the governor’s office — a feat New Jersey hasn’t seen since 1961.
“This victory belongs to every New Jerseyan who believes leadership means standing up for people, not bowing down to power,” Sherrill told supporters at her election-night rally in Newark. “We’re sending a message tonight — that our future will be driven by fairness, by opportunity, and by courage.”
Race shaped by Trump’s shadow and economic unease
Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor, worked relentlessly to tie Ciattarelli to Trump, portraying him as unwilling to challenge the president. “He’ll do whatever Trump tells him to do,” she charged during their first debate.
The race unfolded amid Trump’s second term and ongoing public unease over his economic policies. While Trump made gains nationwide in 2024 — narrowing his New Jersey loss to just six points — Sherrill’s win signaled that those improvements may not translate into sustained Republican momentum in the post-2024 political landscape.
The election became an early litmus test for both parties ahead of the 2026 midterms, particularly over economic concerns, energy costs, and the cost of living in one of the nation’s most expensive states.
Sherrill’s economic message breaks through
Sherrill centered her campaign on affordability and utility costs, pledging to declare a state of emergency on electricity rates on her first day in office and to fight Trump’s administration over funding for the Gateway Tunnel Project, a critical infrastructure plan connecting New Jersey and New York.
She also vowed to join a lawsuit challenging Trump’s tariff policies, which she said were “raising costs on everything from a cup of coffee to your groceries.”
Ciattarelli, a former state legislator and the 2021 GOP nominee, tried to make the race about Democratic leadership in the state, blaming Sherrill’s party for the state’s affordability crisis. But his consistent praise for Trump, who endorsed him in the GOP primary, blunted his appeal among moderates and independents.
“New Jersey needs change,” Ciattarelli said in their final debate, arguing that the state faced “four major crises — affordability, public education, public safety, and overdevelopment.”
Money, turnout and Trump define the outcome
The contest drew more than $95 million in ad spending, according to AdImpact, with Democrats and allied groups pouring in over $40 million to cast Ciattarelli as “Trump’s man in Trenton.”
Republicans, meanwhile, struggled to turn out Trump’s base without the president on the ballot, a persistent challenge in post-Trump elections.
The New Jersey pattern also favored Sherrill: in eight of the past ten gubernatorial contests, voters chose a candidate from the party opposite the sitting president.
Sherrill’s campaign benefited from high-profile Democratic surrogates, including former President Barack Obama, who headlined a major rally in Newark over the weekend.
A rising Democratic figure with national potential
First elected to Congress in 2018’s “blue wave,” Sherrill flipped a longtime Republican district and quickly built a reputation as a pragmatic Democrat with military and law enforcement credentials. Her gubernatorial win — during Trump’s second term — may position her for future national prominence, party strategists say.
Ciattarelli conceded Tuesday night, congratulating Sherrill and urging unity: “While this isn’t the result we hoped for, I love this state, and I wish Governor-elect Sherrill success for the sake of all New Jerseyans.”
Sherrill’s win, along with Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s victory in Virginia, gives Democrats back-to-back wins in the first statewide contests of Trump’s second term — results that could shape the national political narrative heading into 2026.
