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Ukraine got blindsided. When Russia launched a ballistic missile barrage at Kyiv and other cities early Tuesday morning, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine “received no advance warning from our partners.” Now multiple sources tell CBS News the U.S. may have intentionally withheld the early warnings it normally provides.
What Happened
According to the sources, American officials told their Ukrainian counterparts the missile launch detection system had failed due to “bad weather.” Ukrainian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told CBS News they did not believe the excuse — and accused the U.S. of “playing” with the system.
Here’s the part that’s hard to ignore: when Russia launched another wave of ballistic missiles around 3 a.m. local time Wednesday, the sources said the U.S. early warning system appeared to be working again.
The sources also said this wasn’t the first time. Earlier this year, the U.S. failed to provide intelligence on Russian ballistic missile launches during one previous instance, citing the need to focus more resources on the Middle East.
The Context: Ceasefire, Threats, And Leverage
Russia started launching strikes soon after President Trump posted Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire.” Wednesday’s overnight attack — more than 39 ballistic missiles and over 120 drones and loitering munitions, primarily targeting energy and critical infrastructure in Kyiv and Kharkiv — killed six people and left some 600,000 without power, Zelenskyy said.
Earlier this week, the Trump administration threatened to stop sharing intelligence and to halt the purchase of U.S.-made weapons by European allies for Ukraine through the PURL procurement system if Ukraine did not stop deep strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, a European and a Ukrainian official told CBS News.
Asked Tuesday if the U.S. had stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, Trump denied it: “No, we haven’t. We help them, but we’re really helping them get to a final answer. We want the war ended.”
The sources told CBS News the U.S. had not ceased intelligence sharing with Ukraine overall — calling this week’s missing warning a specific incident.
The Starlink Wrinkle
Ukrainian officials and soldiers also told CBS News that Ukraine’s military started experiencing difficulties Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with Starlink, Elon Musk’s satellite technology that Ukrainian soldiers rely on to communicate and carry out strikes.
“On the night of 14 October, without warning the Defence Forces, SpaceX unilaterally restricted the operation of Starshield terminals (‘military package’) while in motion,” sources in Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense told CBS News, saying it complicates drone missions, frontline logistics, reconnaissance, and signal relay. The ministry says it is now in contact with the United States, SpaceX, and NATO partners.
Why It Matters For Us
Ukraine depends on American intelligence for both offensive and defensive capabilities — satellite and aircraft sensor data used to identify Russian aircraft and missile launches. If the U.S. is quietly throttling early warnings to pressure Kyiv into stopping strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, that is a dangerous kind of leverage to play with: it trades Ukrainian civilian lives for negotiating position. And with fuel prices surging at home and three weeks until the midterms, every escalation abroad lands harder at the checkout line.
