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Jimmy Williams
Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) holds a slight lead over former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the race for the state’s Senate seat, according to a new poll. Conducted by Gonzales Research & Media Services, the survey found Alsobrooks leading Hogan by 5 percentage points, with 46% of voters favoring her compared to Hogan’s 41%.
With the election still months away, 11% of voters remain undecided. The poll highlights a competitive contest between the two candidates, despite Maryland’s strong Democratic tilt in recent elections.
Democrats overwhelmingly back Alsobrooks, with over 70% of respondents supporting her, but Hogan’s appeal among the Democratic base is notable—21% of Democrats say they may vote for the former governor. Meanwhile, Hogan enjoys strong Republican support, garnering 82% of the GOP vote.
Independent voters appear to be a key battleground. According to the survey, 41% of independents favor Hogan, while 31% lean towards Alsobrooks. However, a significant 28% of independent voters are still undecided, which could swing the outcome as the race progresses.
Alsobrooks, a rising star in Maryland’s Democratic Party, gained national attention with a prime-time speech at the Democratic National Convention last month. Despite this, the poll underscores the challenge she faces in boosting her name recognition. The survey found that 34% of voters do not recognize her name, compared to just 1.6% of voters unfamiliar with Hogan. Hogan, who served two terms as one of the country’s most popular governors, benefits from high name recognition, which continues to give him an edge among independents.
While Alsobrooks holds a narrow lead, Hogan’s favorability remains high at 50%. His moderate stances on key issues, such as abortion, where he describes himself as “pro-choice,” have helped him appeal to centrist voters. However, Hogan’s relationship with the Republican base is complex. In the poll, 54% of Republicans viewed Hogan favorably, a figure barely higher than his 53% favorability among independents and only 7 points higher than his 47% rating among Democrats.
Hogan’s positioning in the middle of the political spectrum has also put him at odds with some party hardliners, particularly after he urged Americans to “respect” the guilty verdict in former President Donald Trump’s New York hush money case. His ability to maintain support from both Republicans and independents will likely be crucial to his chances in the race.
Alsobrooks, despite her lead, faces the challenge of increasing her name recognition across the state. Forty percent of voters view her favorably, while 27% remain neutral, indicating a significant opportunity for her to grow her support base as the campaign continues.
According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling average, Alsobrooks holds a 4.3-point lead over Hogan. As the race heats up, both candidates will need to focus on swaying the large portion of undecided voters to secure victory.
The Maryland Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests of 2024. The Gonzales Research poll surveyed 820 voters between Aug. 24 and 30 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
