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The battle for control of the U.S. Senate is tightening as Democrats challenge Republicans in traditionally conservative states while defending seats of their own in competitive contests across the country.
Seven races in Texas, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan and New Hampshire are drawing particular attention from political analysts, campaign strategists and outside spending groups. The contests feature a mix of familiar political figures, first-time Senate candidates and races shaped by retirements, contentious primaries and voter concerns about the economy and President Donald Trump’s policies.
The stakes are significant. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reclaim the Senate majority, assuming they hold their own seats. Republicans, meanwhile, are working to protect their majority while facing competitive challenges in states Trump carried in 2024.
The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Split Ticket have identified several of these contests as toss-ups or competitive races, although their assessments differ. Recent polling also shows close contests in several states, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the November midterm elections.
Here are seven Senate races to watch.
1. Texas: James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton
Race ratings: Cook Political Report — Toss-up; Sabato’s Crystal Ball — Toss-up; Split Ticket — Lean Democratic.
Texas has become one of the most closely watched Senate contests of the cycle, with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico challenging Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for an open seat.
The race took a significant turn in May, when Paxton defeated incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff. Cornyn’s allies and outside supporters spent heavily to keep him in the race, but Paxton secured the nomination and became the Republican standard-bearer.
The result prompted Cook Political Report to move the contest toward Democrats, reflecting the potential consequences of a competitive general election in a state that has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection in 1988.
Talarico has sought to make the contest about affordability and the direction of the country. Paxton, a prominent conservative and Trump ally, is campaigning to maintain Republican control of a seat that has remained in GOP hands for decades.
Polling averages cited in early October showed Talarico narrowly ahead, with several individual surveys also placing the candidates within a few points of one another. The race has attracted substantial outside spending as Republicans seek to prevent a Democratic upset.
The contest is important not only because of the seat itself but also because Texas has featured prominently in models examining which states could prove decisive in determining Senate control.
2. Ohio: Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted
Race ratings: Cook Political Report — Toss-up; Sabato’s Crystal Ball — Toss-up; Split Ticket — Toss-up.
Ohio’s special Senate election pits former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat after JD Vance left the Senate to become vice president.
Brown lost his 2024 reelection campaign to Republican Bernie Moreno, a race heavily influenced by national political dynamics. His return to the ballot gives Democrats another opportunity to compete for a seat in a state that has moved toward Republicans in recent presidential elections.
Brown has built his political identity around labor, manufacturing and economic issues. His campaign is seeking to make the race about Ohio workers and household costs, while Husted is defending the Republican agenda and his record in state government.
Democratic strategists have argued that Brown is better positioned in a campaign centered on state-specific concerns than he was in the nationally focused 2024 contest.
Polling averages in early October showed Brown with a narrow advantage, although individual surveys varied. Some recent polls put the candidates within the margin of error, leaving the race highly competitive.
The outcome could have an outsized effect on the Senate balance. Ohio is one of the Republican-held seats Democrats are targeting as they attempt to assemble the four-seat net gain needed to take control of the chamber.
3. Maine: Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins
Race ratings: Cook Political Report — Toss-up; Sabato’s Crystal Ball — Toss-up; Split Ticket — Lean Democratic.
Maine presents a major test for Republicans as longtime Sen. Susan Collins seeks another term against Democrat Troy Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate.
Collins has repeatedly won statewide elections despite Maine’s Democratic lean in presidential contests. She is seeking a sixth Senate term, making her one of the most established Republican incumbents facing a competitive challenge this year.
Jackson became the Democratic nominee in late July after Graham Platner withdrew from the race following a sexual assault allegation that he denied. The change reshaped the Democratic campaign late in the election cycle.
Democrats view Maine as a potential pickup opportunity because it is the only state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024 that is represented by a Republican senator. Collins’ electoral history, however, complicates the party’s effort to defeat her.
The race has also drawn scrutiny over campaign financing and Collins’ political relationships. ProPublica reported that the FBI investigated allegations involving possible bribery connected to campaign donations and a company linked to the senator. The reported investigation later stalled; allegations of wrongdoing should not be treated as established findings.
Campaign spending has also become a point of contention. Collins has received substantial support from pro-Israel political spending networks, while Jackson’s campaign is seeking to consolidate Democratic support and attract voters concerned about economic and foreign-policy issues.
Polling averages in early October showed a close contest, with some surveys placing Jackson ahead and others indicating a statistical tie. Collins’ history of outperforming public polling in past elections remains part of the context surrounding the race.
4. Iowa: Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson
Race ratings: Cook Political Report — Toss-up; Sabato’s Crystal Ball — Toss-up; Split Ticket — Toss-up.
Iowa is an open-seat contest following Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s decision to retire. Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson in a race that has become more competitive than many Republicans initially expected.
Iowa has leaned Republican in recent federal elections, and Trump carried the state by double digits in 2024. Democrats have not won an Iowa Senate race since 2008, making the contest a significant test of whether the party can expand its Senate map into conservative territory.
Cook Political Report moved the race to a toss-up in August, citing changes in the political environment and concerns about economic pressures on Iowa’s farm economy. Rising fertilizer and diesel costs, along with the effects of tariffs, have become part of the debate over the state’s economic outlook.
The Iran war has added another complication for Hinson, who has urged Trump to end the conflict. The issue reflects a broader challenge for Republicans in competitive races: defending their party’s president while responding to concerns about energy prices and the economic consequences of foreign policy.
Polling in early October showed Turek and Hinson closely matched. Individual surveys differed over which candidate held a slight advantage, with results generally within the margin of error.
The race could help determine whether Democrats can gain ground in states where Republicans have enjoyed a recent electoral advantage.
5. Alaska: Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan
Race ratings: Cook Political Report — Toss-up; Sabato’s Crystal Ball — Lean Democratic; Split Ticket — Lean Democratic.
Alaska has emerged as another closely watched contest, with former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Peltola, who represented Alaska in the House, is seeking to translate her statewide profile into a Senate victory. Sullivan is defending his seat in a state that generally favors Republicans but has a distinctive political culture and a history of ticket-splitting.
Polling averages in early October showed Peltola and Sullivan separated by only a small margin. Recent surveys pointed in different directions, with some giving Peltola a narrow lead and others showing Sullivan ahead.
The contest also features an unusual ballot complication: another candidate named Dan Sullivan, Dan J. Sullivan of Petersburg. The Alaska Supreme Court ordered the second candidate onto the primary ballot after state officials had questioned his eligibility. Republicans alleged that the candidacy was intended to confuse voters, while Peltola’s campaign, state Democrats and the challenger denied that allegation.
The Justice Department also opened an investigation into the candidacy after Republicans raised concerns about possible efforts to mislead voters. Those allegations remain distinct from any established finding of wrongdoing.
Alaska voters are also considering whether to repeal the state’s ranked-choice voting system. That ballot measure adds another dimension to the election, although its effect on the Senate contest remains uncertain.
The race has attracted national attention because of its potential implications for Senate control and the possibility of a competitive Democratic challenge in a Republican-leaning state.
6. Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers
Race ratings: Cook Political Report — Toss-up; Sabato’s Crystal Ball — Lean Democratic; Split Ticket — Lean Democratic.
Michigan’s open Senate seat is a key contest for both parties. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health official, is facing Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman who lost a 2024 Senate race to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.
The seat is open following the retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Democrats are seeking to retain it as Republicans attempt to break through in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 1994.
The candidates’ first televised debate, held Oct. 8 in Grand Rapids, featured disagreements over Trump, the Iran war, health care, tariffs and the candidates’ families. Personal exchanges sometimes competed with discussions of policy, illustrating how national political disputes have become intertwined with the Michigan contest.
El-Sayed has emphasized health care and economic issues, while Rogers has sought to appeal to voters concerned about the economy and national security while navigating his relationship with Trump.
Polling averages in early October showed El-Sayed with a modest lead, while individual surveys placed the candidates closer together. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race to Lean Democratic in September, but Cook continued to rate it a toss-up.
For Democrats, losing Michigan would mean having to flip an additional Republican-held seat to reach a Senate majority. For Republicans, the contest offers an opportunity to capture a seat held by their opponents and expand their position in the chamber.
7. New Hampshire: Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu
Race ratings: Cook Political Report — Lean Democratic as of Oct. 6; Sabato’s Crystal Ball — Lean Democratic; Split Ticket — Likely Democratic.
New Hampshire is another open-seat contest, with Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas facing former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu.
Sununu, the son and brother of former New Hampshire governors, is seeking to return to the Senate after years away from elected federal office. Pappas is trying to keep the seat in Democratic hands as Republicans look to capitalize on the state’s competitive political environment.
The contest has produced a notable difference among election analysts. Cook Political Report rated the race a toss-up before moving it to Lean Democratic on Oct. 6. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also rates the race Lean Democratic, while Split Ticket has placed it in the Likely Democratic category.
Polling averages in early October showed Pappas ahead by several points in a multi-candidate contest. Recent surveys also put him in front, though the size of his advantage varied.
New Hampshire has not elected a Republican to the Senate since Kelly Ayotte won in 2010. That history, combined with Pappas’ polling position, has made the race a central part of the Democratic effort to defend its existing seats.
The contest illustrates how the Senate map is not simply a battle over Republican-held seats. Democrats must also protect open seats and defend incumbents in competitive states if they hope to regain the majority.
What to watch before Election Day
The seven races differ in their candidates, state political environments and recent polling, but they share several themes. Affordability, energy prices, tariffs and the Iran war have become recurring issues, while the candidates’ relationships with Trump are shaping contests far beyond traditionally competitive swing states.
The race ratings also show why no single poll or forecast should be treated as a definitive measure of the outcome. Ratings reflect analysts’ assessments at a particular time, while polling averages combine surveys that can differ in methodology, timing and sample.
For Democrats, the path to Senate control depends on defending their own vulnerable seats while winning enough Republican-held contests. Republicans are trying to protect their majority while limiting losses in states where recent polling has shown close competition.
With Election Day approaching, Texas, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan and New Hampshire will remain important places to watch for signs of how voters are responding to the national political environment and the candidates competing to represent them.
