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Less than a month after Democrats notched a series of victories in the Nov. 4 general election, the political spotlight shifts to Tennessee on Tuesday, where a special congressional election in the state’s 7th District will offer both parties their first test heading into the 2026 midterms.
Republicans are working to defend the reliably conservative Middle Tennessee district and expand their narrow 219-213 majority in the House. Democrats, buoyed by recent gains in battleground states, hope to stage a surprise upset in a district where Donald Trump and GOP candidates have routinely won with about 60% of the vote.
The race pits Republican Matt Van Epps, a West Point graduate, former Army helicopter pilot and former head of the Tennessee Department of General Services, against Democrat Aftyn Behn, a state representative and former organizer who rose quickly through the ranks of progressive activists in Nashville. Both are vying to fill the seat vacated by former GOP Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July to join the private sector.
Van Epps, buoyed by endorsements from both Trump and Green, won an 11-way special primary in October. Behn narrowly emerged from a crowded four-way Democratic primary that included two state lawmakers and a well-funded Nashville businessman. Supporters have compared her to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York — a label embraced by some Democrats and weaponized by Van Epps supporters.
With national implications and high-profile surrogates on both sides, spending has surged. Pre-election filings show Van Epps raising more than $590,000 since the primary, compared with roughly $1 million for Behn.
The district, stretching across 14 counties and including parts of Democratic-heavy Davidson County, has elected Republicans to Congress for more than a decade. After Republicans redrew Tennessee’s congressional map in 2022, carving Nashville into three GOP-leaning districts, Green’s margins tightened but remained strong: he won the 7th District with 60% of the vote in both 2022 and 2024.
Trump carried the district with a similar margin in 2024, while then–Vice President Kamala Harris won nearly 68% of the vote in the Davidson County portion of the district — a region that makes up about one-fifth of the district’s total vote.
Turnout in special elections is typically sharply lower. The 7th District recorded turnout of 69% in the 2024 general election and 41% in the 2022 midterms. As of Nov. 26, the final day of early voting, officials reported just over 84,000 ballots cast ahead of Tuesday’s contest.
Vote counting is expected to move quickly. In the October primaries, the first results appeared five minutes after polls closed, and the final totals arrived before 10:30 p.m. ET. Polls close Tuesday at 7 p.m. CT (8 p.m. ET), and the Associated Press will call the race only once no mathematical path remains for the trailing candidate.
The election marks the fifth special House election of the year. Another vacancy in a heavily Democratic district in Texas will be filled in January, while northern New Jersey voters will select a replacement for Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill in April.
As of Tuesday, 336 days remain until the 2026 midterm elections.
