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Democrat Abigail Spanberger has defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears to become Virginia’s first female governor, NBC News projected Tuesday night, flipping control of the state’s top office and giving Democrats a morale boost as they seek to regroup nationally under President Donald Trump’s second term.
Spanberger, 47, a former CIA officer and three-term congresswoman, prevailed in a race defined by economic anxiety, abortion rights, and voters’ frustration with Washington. Her win ends four years of Republican leadership under outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin and reestablishes Democratic control in a state that has tilted blue in recent presidential elections.
“This victory is for every Virginian who believes in competence, decency, and getting things done,” Spanberger told supporters at her victory party in Richmond. “Together, we’ve shown that common sense and compassion can defeat chaos and division.”
Economic focus and abortion rights drive Democratic win
Spanberger centered her campaign on cost-of-living issues, public safety, and protecting abortion rights, contrasting her pragmatic image with Earle-Sears’ alignment with Trump and conservative social causes. Her campaign consistently outpaced Earle-Sears in both fundraising and polling, while drawing major national Democrats — including potential 2028 contenders — to stump for her across the state.
Earle-Sears, 61, Virginia’s lieutenant governor and a close ally of Youngkin, struggled to define her own message amid persistent questions about Trump’s influence on the race. While she touted Youngkin’s record on economic growth and “parents’ rights,” her campaign failed to gain traction beyond the GOP base.
Trump, who held a tele-rally for Virginia Republicans on the eve of the election, never mentioned Earle-Sears by name and stopped short of issuing a formal endorsement.
Voters cite economy, frustration with Trump administration
According to NBC News exit polls, nearly half of Virginia voters said the economy was the most important issue, with 59% of those voters backing Spanberger and 39% supporting Earle-Sears.
Even though 58% of voters rated the state’s economy as “excellent or good,” Spanberger dominated among the 39% who said conditions were “not so good or poor.”
National politics also loomed large. Sixty-three percent of voters said they were “dissatisfied or angry” about the direction of the country, and 77% of those voters cast ballots for Spanberger. Among those who disapproved of Trump’s job performance — a majority of 55% — nine in ten supported Spanberger.
Spanberger also seized on public backlash to the federal government shutdown that began Oct. 1, blaming Trump and Earle-Sears for economic instability affecting Virginia’s large federal workforce.
Republican missteps and late controversies
Spanberger’s campaign faced a turbulent final month, weighed down by a series of controversies — including violent text messages from Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones, with whom she shared the ballot.
Republicans hammered Spanberger for not retracting her endorsement of Jones, whose 2022 messages suggested a GOP lawmaker should be “shot in the head.” Spanberger condemned the texts but stopped short of urging Jones to quit the race.
Earle-Sears also revived culture-war themes around transgender participation in youth sports and school locker rooms, accusing Spanberger of “dodging” the issue. Spanberger largely sidestepped the attacks, saying such decisions should be made locally “by parents, teachers, and administrators.”
A last-minute redistricting push by Democratic legislators — aimed at strengthening their hand before next year’s congressional midterms — briefly disrupted the campaign’s final week, but analysts said it had little impact on the governor’s race.
Historical and political implications
Spanberger’s win continues a long-running pattern in Virginia politics: in 11 of the last 12 gubernatorial elections, voters have chosen a governor from the party opposite the sitting president.
Earle-Sears, the first Black woman elected to statewide office in Virginia, conceded late Tuesday and congratulated Spanberger, saying, “I love this Commonwealth, and while tonight’s outcome isn’t what we hoped for, I will continue fighting for the values we share.”
For Democrats, Spanberger’s victory provides a symbolic lift after their 2024 presidential loss, suggesting that Trump’s polarizing leadership could energize suburban and moderate voters in key states ahead of 2026.
