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Voters in several states will cast ballots Tuesday in a handful of closely watched races that could signal where the political winds are blowing ahead of next year’s midterm elections — from a dramatic three-way fight for New York City mayor to a red-hot governor’s race in New Jersey and a potential history-making contest in Virginia.
With President Donald Trump facing both economic and political headwinds as his second year in office draws to a close, the outcomes could offer early clues about how his policies — from trade and tariffs to the ongoing federal shutdown — are resonating with voters nationwide.
New York City: Mamdani leads three-way race as Cuomo seeks comeback
In New York City, Democratic state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist from Queens, appears poised to make history as the city’s first Muslim mayor. Mamdani has built a campaign focused on affordability and housing — issues that have energized the city’s progressive base.
Mamdani defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the June Democratic primary, but Cuomo stayed in the race as an independent. A trio of late October polls showed Mamdani holding a solid lead, though some surveys suggested Cuomo was closing the gap in the final days.
Former Mayor Eric Adams, who was indicted on corruption charges in 2024 before the case was dropped, opted out of the Democratic primary to run as an independent but exited the race in September, later endorsing Cuomo. His withdrawal boosted Cuomo’s fundraising and visibility, but Mamdani still far outpaced him in campaign contributions, hitting the $8 million city matching-fund cap in early September.
If Mamdani wins, he would be the second-youngest mayor in New York City history. His campaign has said he would ask Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch to remain in her post if elected, signaling continuity amid promises of reform.
Meanwhile, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa — the Guardian Angels founder and 2021 GOP candidate — trails far behind, despite late pleas from some conservatives to rally around Cuomo. Trump himself has dismissed Sliwa as “not exactly prime time,” hinting that Cuomo would be the better mayor.
All 51 City Council seats are also on the ballot, along with a local measure that would move city elections to coincide with presidential years.
New Jersey: Ciattarelli, Sherrill clash over affordability and Trump ties
Across the Hudson River, New Jersey voters face a tight governor’s race between Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state legislator making his third bid for the post, and Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a Navy veteran and former prosecutor.
Both candidates have focused heavily on the state’s high cost of living. Ciattarelli is pitching a “Make New Jersey Affordable Again” message closely aligned with Trump, while Sherrill promotes an “Affordability Agenda” that promises property tax relief and expanded child care benefits.
The race has also been shaped by controversy surrounding Sherrill’s military record. In September, the National Archives mistakenly released an unredacted copy of her Navy file to Ciattarelli allies, reviving questions about a decades-old Naval Academy cheating scandal. Sherrill was never accused of wrongdoing and was awarded a Navy Achievement Medal for saving a classmate’s life. Her campaign called the document release “a blatant political misuse of official records.”
Ciattarelli has used the issue to question Sherrill’s transparency, while Democrats argue it reflects partisan weaponization of government records. Recent polls show the race within the margin of error.
Virginia: Spanberger, Earle-Sears vie to make history
In Virginia, the race for governor pits two women who could both make history: Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who could become the nation’s first Black female governor, and former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA operations officer who could become Virginia’s first woman governor.
With Gov. Glenn Youngkin term-limited, the election is widely viewed as a referendum on Trump’s leadership. Virginia has been particularly hard hit by the federal government shutdown, now in its second month, with hundreds of thousands of federal employees and contractors furloughed or unpaid.
Earle-Sears has sought to replicate Youngkin’s 2021 strategy of focusing on education and parental rights, attacking Spanberger as “too close to Washington.” But Spanberger has positioned herself as a pragmatic centrist, touting endorsements from law enforcement groups — including the Virginia Police Benevolent Association, which backed Youngkin four years ago — and former Republican Reps. Barbara Comstock and Denver Riggleman.
Trump has notably stayed out of the race, a move political analysts say reflects the White House’s concern about overnationalizing a contest that could go either way.
California: Democrats push redistricting measure
On the West Coast, California voters are deciding Proposition 50, a Democratic-backed ballot measure that would temporarily allow state lawmakers to redraw U.S. House district boundaries in response to what they call Republican gerrymandering in red states.
The initiative targets five GOP-held congressional districts, including those represented by Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, and Darrell Issa. Supporters say the measure is needed to “level the playing field” after Trump encouraged Republican-controlled legislatures to redraw their maps.
A CBS News poll found 62% of likely voters support the proposition. Major donors include the House Majority PAC, which has contributed $46 million, and George Soros’ Fund for Policy Reform, which added $10 million. Opponents say the measure politicizes the redistricting process and undermines the state’s independent commission.
Broader implications
Political strategists in both parties say Tuesday’s results could shape the 2026 midterm landscape. Victories by progressives like Mamdani or centrists like Spanberger and Sherrill could influence how Democrats position themselves against Trump’s populist brand of conservatism. For Republicans, the races will test whether embracing the president helps or hurts in competitive states.
“These elections will show whether voters are reacting to Trump’s policies — or simply to Trump himself,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “They’ll tell us how much political gravity he still exerts on the country.”
Next steps
Results from early voting and mail-in ballots may take several days to finalize, particularly in New York and California. Analysts expect exit polls to offer the first clues about voter sentiment on economic issues, the government shutdown, and Trump’s leadership heading into 2026.
