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Families sending children back to school this fall are confronting more than the usual scramble for pencils, notebooks and lunch boxes. They’re facing a sharply higher bill — while some immigrant families are also preparing for the possibility that a parent could be detained.
A new analysis from the Century Foundation estimates that the 2026-27 school year will cost families nearly $4,000 per child, about 10.7% more than last year. The increases are particularly steep for everyday necessities: School supplies are up 7.7%, lunch items have climbed 10.9%, lunch boxes are up 26.8% and notebooks have risen 23%, according to the analysis.
Nearly half of parents surveyed said they expect to take on debt to cover back-to-school expenses.
For families already struggling with higher household costs, those numbers turn a familiar seasonal expense into another financial pressure point.
Tariffs Are Showing Up on the School Supply List
The price increases are not happening in isolation.
The Century Foundation and other reporting cited by the analysis point to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies as a major factor behind rising costs for imported school supplies. Many of the products families buy for school are manufactured overseas, meaning tariffs can raise the cost of bringing those goods into the United States.
Last year, some retailers were still selling inventory purchased before many of the tariffs took effect. This year, families are increasingly encountering products whose prices reflect the newer costs.
Newell Brands, the company behind brands including Sharpie and Elmer’s Glue, has said tariffs have cost it more than $300 million. Those additional costs can ultimately work their way down the supply chain to consumers.
That means a policy promoted as a tool to reshape international trade can show up in something as ordinary as a bottle of glue or a child’s notebook.
And the pressure doesn’t stop at tariffs. Higher energy costs associated with the war involving Iran have also increased transportation and shipping expenses, adding another potential cost to products moving through the supply chain.
For Immigrant Families, Back-to-School Anxiety Goes Beyond Prices
For many families, however, the biggest concern this school year isn’t what supplies will cost.
It’s whether a parent will be home when school ends.
The Trump administration’s decision to rescind a federal policy that had restricted immigration enforcement in certain traditionally protected locations has changed how some school districts prepare for the possibility that a parent could be detained.
Schools have increasingly treated emergency-contact and guardianship paperwork as part of their safety planning. In Minnesota, for example, schools have distributed forms allowing parents to designate another adult to care for their children if they are detained, according to Education Week.
For a child, that isn’t an abstract immigration debate. It’s a question of who will pick them up from school.
Families Are Being Squeezed From Both Sides
The result is a back-to-school season defined by two very different forms of uncertainty.
Families broadly are dealing with higher prices for basic school necessities. Immigrant families facing the possibility of immigration enforcement are dealing with an additional fear that a parent could suddenly be separated from the household.
Critics of Trump’s policies argue that both pressures are foreseeable consequences of decisions made by the administration.
Tariffs are not an abstract economic policy when they raise the price of products parents are required to buy. And immigration enforcement is not merely a political talking point when children are being asked to prepare for the possibility that a parent may not be there after the final bell.
The broader question is whether policymakers are adequately accounting for the people who absorb the costs of those decisions.
For parents already deciding which supplies they can afford to skip, another price increase can mean another credit-card charge or another bill pushed into next month.
For children whose parents fear detention, the concern can be even more fundamental: Who will be there when school is over?
Back-to-school season is supposed to be about new teachers, new classes and a fresh start.
For millions of families, the economic and political choices of the past year are making it something else entirely.
